After a year long massacre of the recruitment industry in China, it is good to come back after the holidays and see early summer’s little green shoots grow into something more. Not necessarily a lot more, but just more.

The narrative of a China market that is enticing spenders to spend, and companies to invest, is now easier to see.

Hotels are currently offering such good deals that people are organising long lunches with large groups of friends and colleagues. Conference companies are taking advantage of low rental costs, and a two year hiatus in conferences & seminars, to build on our latent need to get together and yap-yap-yap. Companies have pared their factories and offices down to the point where they have no choice but to hire again, albeit slowly and very cautiously.

As a committed bear I have a strong tendency to look for risk scenarios where others see nothing but a ‘bright future’. But after a Breakfast Session with Andy Rothman (CLSA), courtesy of the China Economic Review (highly recommended), I have the sense of an at-the-very-minimum temporary respite from the usual pessimism. The bulls are back.

Even the stock fall this week leaves me unfazed. Bubbles-burst-eventually. Better-now-than-later. It’s-not-a-fall, it’s-a-correction. You get the picture …

Rothman sells a good China story, which admittedly is his job, but he backs it up with the kind of broad macro data, and deep down diving, that tends to build confidence. His personal knowledge of the Chinese market is deep enough to persuade even the skeptics like me that the long term picture for China is good, and we are just at the starting gates for a real recovery.

If he is right, and this really is the beginning of the end of pessimism, HR should be looking at the following scenario:

- Business picks up across the board and companies begin to hire again (happening)

- Companies start to invest in existing and greenfield sites in China (happening across the board)

- Human Resources start to find it hard to bring skilled professionals on board ie. early exits increase (happening a little, especially in the West)

- Candidates find that they have more than one offer on the table again (happening a little)

- Candidates play off one company against another (probably happening a little)

- Retention figures go down as opportunities emerge in the marketplace (happening slowly)

- Expected salaries, for a job change, go back to the usual 25% of annual salary (happening)

- HR gets a new sense of urgency about hiring and begins to push line managers to speed up the process (probably happening)

- The battle for hearts and minds, otherwise known as the War for Talent, starts again (we’re not there yet)

Let’s hope that Andy Rothman is right, and my inner black swan sensing device is not temporarily disabled. If enough of us believe that he is right then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But then again, don’t mention the Baltic Dry Index, or unemployment, or exports, or FDI. Damnit!, nearly made it to the bull enclosure.

So close …