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posted by on April 2, 2007
A major report entitled ?The Future of China?s Economy, The Path to 2020 ?   Opportunities, Challenges and Uncertainties? just prompted me to ask the members of the Talent in China group the obvious question:
 
      How do you see China developing, and what is the
      impact on hiring?
 
Based on a poll of 700 executives from more than 60 countries around the world, the report tries to guage their views and expectations of China?s global impact to 2020.
 
The poll is interesting not just for the results but also for the fact that it was even commissioned in the first place. With all due respect to the relevant countries, no one is posing any questions about the impact of Cuba or the Tahiti on the global economy.
 
The authors are Rohit Talwar and David Smith,  and if you want a copy you can contact them directly at the addresses/numbers below.
 

  Rohit Talwar rohit.talwar@thegff.com +44 (0)7973 405145

 

  David Smith david.smith@thegff.com +44 (0)7932 408901
 
 
The Table of Contents can be downloaded here. In the meantime, here is a summary of what respondents believe is true about China:
 

�         30% believe China?s Economy will overtake that of the USA by 2025 and 73% believe it will happen by 2035.

�         89% of respondents think international companies will consider it essential to be listed on a Chinese stock market. 

�         78% believe that the Chinese stock market will overtake the New York Stock Exchange in size.

�         60% believe Chinese companies could become the largest grouping amongst the Fortune Global 500 by 2040.

�         45% of respondents think Chinese culture and business practices will enter western corporate life.

�         48% believe key industry and market decisions will be taken in China

�         70% of respondents believe it will be considered normal for US and European workers to be employed by Chinese owned companies by 2030

�         65% of respondents claim to have had no direct Chinese business experience.
�         65% of respondents receive no revenues or profits from China. 
�         55% of respondents expect China to increasingly become the launch market for new products and services,
�          43% of Indian respondents were already generating revenues from the Chinese Market, compared to only 25% from North America and 34% from Europe.
�         By 2020, 25% of Indian respondents expect to earn over 40% of profits from China, compared to just 8% of Europeans and only 12% of North Americans. 
 
So what do you think?
 
 
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2 comments

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  • 1 point 2 years ago

    I agree that China is becoming more and more important to the global business environment, but there is a tendency to jump to extreme conclusions. 89% think that international companies will list in China? 78% believe China?s market will overtake the NYSE?

    The key to these results is the distant time horizon (2040 is a good 33 years off yet) and the fact that 65% of respondents have no direct Chinese business experience (i.e.: have never set foot in China).

    China has been growing rapidly in the last few years, but not is facing bottlenecks and barriers to development that will be harder to overcome. Not the least of which is the HR dilemma. Due to shortages of skilled workers and managers, salaries are skyrocketing while productivity is inching up quite slowly.

    Doesn?t this sound a bit like Japan in the late 80s? Weren?t we all saying pretty much the same thing about Japan Inc then?

    I think they?ve got the trend right, but if they can bring the time horizon in towards the 5 or 10 year mark, the results would be a good deal more useful.

  • 1 point 2 years ago

    I agree that China is becoming more and more important to the global business environment, but there is a tendency to jump to extreme conclusions. 89% think that international companies will list in China? 78% believe China?s market will overtake the NYSE?

    The key to these results is the distant time horizon (2040 is a good 33 years off yet) and the fact that 65% of respondents have no direct Chinese business experience (i.e.: have never set foot in China).

    China has been growing rapidly in the last few years, but not is facing bottlenecks and barriers to development that will be harder to overcome. Not the least of which is the HR dilemma. Due to shortages of skilled workers and managers, salaries are skyrocketing while productivity is inching up quite slowly.

    Doesn?t this sound a bit like Japan in the late 80s? Weren?t we all saying pretty much the same thing about Japan Inc then?

    I think they?ve got the trend right, but if they can bring the time horizon in towards the 5 or 10 year mark, the results would be a good deal more useful.