It seems that the annual prediction game is in full force. I blogged last week here about some of them. John Sumser's ERN has some more predictions here. This is my second year of predictions. My 2006 predictions are available here and my review of how I did is available here. Martin Synder suggested that the "deck might have been a little stacked" in my favor. Martin is right. My predictions last year were safe. After all only 1 of 10 didn't come true. Neil Vaughn asked if I had any data to validate my claims or if it was all anecdotal? My answer to Neil was that my claims are anecdotal. I gather information constantly. I'm a prolific reader. I constantly review and evaluate my thinking and the thinking of others and I take nothing for granted. When I add all that information to my systems or holistic view of everything, what filters out are my opinions about the future. There is nothing to back up. These are just opinions. So with that said, here's what I say will happen in 2007. And these predictions are definitely not safe:
1) The market will soften. I believe that our best years are currently behind us. At the end of 2007 we'll look back and, at best, see a flat year. At worst we'll see the beginning of a decline.
2) A truly disruptive technology will emerge to more effectively connect organizations looking for people with people looking for new opportunities. This technology won't be a job board, it won't be a job aggregator, it won't be a social networking site, and it won't be Google indexing all the jobs on the planet. Of course Google is likely to do that anyway.
3) Corporations will increasingly demand fully-integrated software to satisfy all the demands of staffing organizations and HR organizations. Separate ATS and HRIS software will no longer be tolerated. Neither will the linking of those functions. Only complete integration will meet the demands of increasingly sophisticated organizations and users. Leading edge providers will further integrate their offerings with ERP software such as Oracle and SAP.
4) Growth in social networking will stabilize and there will be attempts to legislate its use.
5) The EEOC will issue guidance on its concerns about discrimination in hiring based on information gathered from social networking sites like myspace and facebook.
6) The novelty of video blogging will wear off.
7) The number of active blogs in the entire blogsphere will decrease.
8) Video resumes won't happen in the broader market due to concerns about discrimination. They will expand in areas where the applicant's visual appearance is relevant to their ability to do the job such as in modeling, acting, and presentation positions.
So there you have my 8, mostly unsafe, predictions for 2007. As always, your thoughts and comments are extremely welcome. I wish you a safe and prosperous 2007...
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