Maybe things look better where you are folks, but not around here in the Bay Area (See 1st below.)
Also, look at the historic unemployment rate.  (See 2nd below.) Let's compare recessions: here defined as an unemployment rate above 7.0% for the late 70s-early 80s and current one, and above 6.0% for the 2003 one (the rate never went above 6.3!) If we get back to 7%, it will be higher than it was during the Dot Bomb Recession of 2003. This doesn't look likely to happen for awhile (See 3rd below.)

I hope these are way too pessimistic, but if they aren't, let's see what we can do to help each other. I welcome your input and ideas....

-KH keithsrj@sbcglobal.net
====================================================================================================================================================================

Friday, August 21, 2009
Silicon Valley's July jobless rate nearly doubles

Silicon Valley / San Jose Business Journal

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The unemployment rate in the Silicon Valley was 11.8 percent in July, down from a revised 11.9 percent in June and above the year-ago estimate of 6.3 percent, according to figures released Friday by California's Employment Development Department.

This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 12.1 percent for California and 9.7 percent for the nation during the same period.

Broken down, the unemployment rate was 12.7 percent in San Benito County and 11.7 percent in Santa Clara County.

Year over year employment in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metropolitan statistical area receded by 42,800 jobs or 4.6 percent.

• Manufacturing (down by 13,800 jobs) experienced its 10th consecutive month of job losses on a year-over-year basis. At the detailed industry level, semiconductor and related devices posted the greatest manufacturing cutback, down by 3,700 jobs.

• Professional and business services contracted by 9,100 jobs. Employment services (down by 4,200 jobs) and professional, scientific, and technical services (down by 4,000 jobs) accounted for the bulk of those job losses.

• Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 8,600 jobs. Retail trade scaled back 5,300 of those jobs, with clothing and department stores most affected.

• Other significant job losses over the year included: construction (down by 7,800 jobs); leisure and hospitality (down by 2,600 jobs); information (down by 2,400 jobs); and financial activities (down by 1,900 jobs).

• In contrast, private educational and health services gained 2,600 jobs over the year

The unemployment rate in the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City metropolitan statistical area was 9.3 percent in July, unchanged from a revised 9.3 percent in June and above the year-ago estimate of 5.3 percent.


July - August 2009

SF Unemployment Up, But Not Double-Digit

Unemployment rates continue to increase. As of June 2009 San Francisco's unemployment rate was 9.8%, compared to the June 2008 rate of 5.2%. California's unemployment rate for the same period was 11.6%, compared to a national rate of 9.5%. San Francisco's unemployment rate is the 8th lowest in the state, after Marin at 8%, Santa Barbara at 8.2%, Napa at 8.8%, San Mateo at 8.9%, San Luis Obispo at 9%, Orange at 9.2% and Inyo at 9.5%.

Other Bay Area county unemployment rates: Sonoma 10.2%, Santa Clara 11.8%, Solano 11.3%, Alameda 11.4% and Contra Costa 10.7%.

Some additional California unemployment rates to note: Los Angeles 11.4%, Sacramento 11.8% and San Diego 10.1%.

Source: California Employment Development Department.
=============================================

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/UNRATE.txt
Title:               Civilian Unemployment Rate
Series ID:           UNRATE
Source:              U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Release:             The Employment Situation
Seasonal Adjustment: Seasonally Adjusted
Frequency:           Monthly
Units:               Percent
Date Range:          1948-01-01 to 2009-08-01
Notes:               Persons 16 years of age and older.
                    
                     The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced several revisions to
                     the Household Survey on Friday Feb.7th 2003, with the release of the
                     January 2003 Data. They introduced the Census 2000 population controls
                     (which affect data back to 2000 and cause a break in the data in
                     January 2000), a new seasonal adjustment procedure, and new seasonal
                     factors back to January 1998. For further information contact the
                     Current Employment Statistics (CES) homepage at www.bls.gov/ces or by
                     calling 202-691-6555.

DATE       VALUE
1948-01-01   3.4
1948-02-01   3.8
1948-03-01   4.0
1948-04-01   3.9
1948-05-01   3.5
1948-06-01   3.6
1948-07-01   3.6
1948-08-01   3.9
1948-09-01   3.8
1948-10-01   3.7
1948-11-01   3.8
1948-12-01   4.0
1949-01-01   4.3
1949-02-01   4.7
1949-03-01   5.0
1949-04-01   5.3
1949-05-01   6.1
1949-06-01   6.2
1949-07-01   6.7
1949-08-01   6.8
1949-09-01   6.6
1949-10-01   7.9
1949-11-01   6.4
1949-12-01   6.6
1950-01-01   6.5
1950-02-01   6.4
1950-03-01   6.3
1950-04-01   5.8
1950-05-01   5.5
1950-06-01   5.4
1950-07-01   5.0
1950-08-01   4.5
1950-09-01   4.4
1950-10-01   4.2
1950-11-01   4.2
1950-12-01   4.3
1951-01-01   3.7
1951-02-01   3.4
1951-03-01   3.4
1951-04-01   3.1
1951-05-01   3.0
1951-06-01   3.2
1951-07-01   3.1
1951-08-01   3.1
1951-09-01   3.3
1951-10-01   3.5
1951-11-01   3.5
1951-12-01   3.1
1952-01-01   3.2
1952-02-01   3.1
1952-03-01   2.9
1952-04-01   2.9
1952-05-01   3.0
1952-06-01   3.0
1952-07-01   3.2
1952-08-01   3.4
1952-09-01   3.1
1952-10-01   3.0
1952-11-01   2.8
1952-12-01   2.7
1953-01-01   2.9
1953-02-01   2.6
1953-03-01   2.6
1953-04-01   2.7
1953-05-01   2.5
1953-06-01   2.5
1953-07-01   2.6
1953-08-01   2.7
1953-09-01   2.9
1953-10-01   3.1
1953-11-01   3.5
1953-12-01   4.5
1954-01-01   4.9
1954-02-01   5.2
1954-03-01   5.7
1954-04-01   5.9
1954-05-01   5.9
1954-06-01   5.6
1954-07-01   5.8
1954-08-01   6.0
1954-09-01   6.1
1954-10-01   5.7
1954-11-01   5.3
1954-12-01   5.0
1955-01-01   4.9
1955-02-01   4.7
1955-03-01   4.6
1955-04-01   4.7
1955-05-01   4.3
1955-06-01   4.2
1955-07-01   4.0
1955-08-01   4.2
1955-09-01   4.1
1955-10-01   4.3
1955-11-01   4.2
1955-12-01   4.2
1956-01-01   4.0
1956-02-01   3.9
1956-03-01   4.2
1956-04-01   4.0
1956-05-01   4.3
1956-06-01   4.3
1956-07-01   4.4
1956-08-01   4.1
1956-09-01   3.9
1956-10-01   3.9
1956-11-01   4.3
1956-12-01   4.2
1957-01-01   4.2
1957-02-01   3.9
1957-03-01   3.7
1957-04-01   3.9
1957-05-01   4.1
1957-06-01   4.3
1957-07-01   4.2
1957-08-01   4.1
1957-09-01   4.4
1957-10-01   4.5
1957-11-01   5.1
1957-12-01   5.2
1958-01-01   5.8
1958-02-01   6.4
1958-03-01   6.7
1958-04-01   7.4
1958-05-01   7.4
1958-06-01   7.3
1958-07-01   7.5
1958-08-01   7.4
1958-09-01   7.1
1958-10-01   6.7
1958-11-01   6.2
1958-12-01   6.2
1959-01-01   6.0
1959-02-01   5.9
1959-03-01   5.6
1959-04-01   5.2
1959-05-01   5.1
1959-06-01   5.0
1959-07-01   5.1
1959-08-01   5.2
1959-09-01   5.5
1959-10-01   5.7
1959-11-01   5.8
1959-12-01   5.3
1960-01-01   5.2
1960-02-01   4.8
1960-03-01   5.4
1960-04-01   5.2
1960-05-01   5.1
1960-06-01   5.4
1960-07-01   5.5
1960-08-01   5.6
1960-09-01   5.5
1960-10-01   6.1
1960-11-01   6.1
1960-12-01   6.6
1961-01-01   6.6
1961-02-01   6.9
1961-03-01   6.9
1961-04-01   7.0
1961-05-01   7.1
1961-06-01   6.9
1961-07-01   7.0
1961-08-01   6.6
1961-09-01   6.7
1961-10-01   6.5
1961-11-01   6.1
1961-12-01   6.0
1962-01-01   5.8
1962-02-01   5.5
1962-03-01   5.6
1962-04-01   5.6
1962-05-01   5.5
1962-06-01   5.5
1962-07-01   5.4
1962-08-01   5.7
1962-09-01   5.6
1962-10-01   5.4
1962-11-01   5.7
1962-12-01   5.5
1963-01-01   5.7
1963-02-01   5.9
1963-03-01   5.7
1963-04-01   5.7
1963-05-01   5.9
1963-06-01   5.6
1963-07-01   5.6
1963-08-01   5.4
1963-09-01   5.5
1963-10-01   5.5
1963-11-01   5.7
1963-12-01   5.5
1964-01-01   5.6
1964-02-01   5.4
1964-03-01   5.4
1964-04-01   5.3
1964-05-01   5.1
1964-06-01   5.2
1964-07-01   4.9
1964-08-01   5.0
1964-09-01   5.1
1964-10-01   5.1
1964-11-01   4.8
1964-12-01   5.0
1965-01-01   4.9
1965-02-01   5.1
1965-03-01   4.7
1965-04-01   4.8
1965-05-01   4.6
1965-06-01   4.6
1965-07-01   4.4
1965-08-01   4.4
1965-09-01   4.3
1965-10-01   4.2
1965-11-01   4.1
1965-12-01   4.0
1966-01-01   4.0
1966-02-01   3.8
1966-03-01   3.8
1966-04-01   3.8
1966-05-01   3.9
1966-06-01   3.8
1966-07-01   3.8
1966-08-01   3.8
1966-09-01   3.7
1966-10-01   3.7
1966-11-01   3.6
1966-12-01   3.8
1967-01-01   3.9
1967-02-01   3.8
1967-03-01   3.8
1967-04-01   3.8
1967-05-01   3.8
1967-06-01   3.9
1967-07-01   3.8
1967-08-01   3.8
1967-09-01   3.8
1967-10-01   4.0
1967-11-01   3.9
1967-12-01   3.8
1968-01-01   3.7
1968-02-01   3.8
1968-03-01   3.7
1968-04-01   3.5
1968-05-01   3.5
1968-06-01   3.7
1968-07-01   3.7
1968-08-01   3.5
1968-09-01   3.4
1968-10-01   3.4
1968-11-01   3.4
1968-12-01   3.4
1969-01-01   3.4
1969-02-01   3.4
1969-03-01   3.4
1969-04-01   3.4
1969-05-01   3.4
1969-06-01   3.5
1969-07-01   3.5
1969-08-01   3.5
1969-09-01   3.7
1969-10-01   3.7
1969-11-01   3.5
1969-12-01   3.5
1970-01-01   3.9
1970-02-01   4.2
1970-03-01   4.4
1970-04-01   4.6
1970-05-01   4.8
1970-06-01   4.9
1970-07-01   5.0
1970-08-01   5.1
1970-09-01   5.4
1970-10-01   5.5
1970-11-01   5.9
1970-12-01   6.1
1971-01-01   5.9
1971-02-01   5.9
1971-03-01   6.0
1971-04-01   5.9
1971-05-01   5.9
1971-06-01   5.9
1971-07-01   6.0
1971-08-01   6.1
1971-09-01   6.0
1971-10-01   5.8
1971-11-01   6.0
1971-12-01   6.0
1972-01-01   5.8
1972-02-01   5.7
1972-03-01   5.8
1972-04-01   5.7
1972-05-01   5.7
1972-06-01   5.7
1972-07-01   5.6
1972-08-01   5.6
1972-09-01   5.5
1972-10-01   5.6
1972-11-01   5.3
1972-12-01   5.2
1973-01-01   4.9
1973-02-01   5.0
1973-03-01   4.9
1973-04-01   5.0
1973-05-01   4.9
1973-06-01   4.9
1973-07-01   4.8
1973-08-01   4.8
1973-09-01   4.8
1973-10-01   4.6
1973-11-01   4.8
1973-12-01   4.9
1974-01-01   5.1
1974-02-01   5.2
1974-03-01   5.1
1974-04-01   5.1
1974-05-01   5.1
1974-06-01   5.4
1974-07-01   5.5
1974-08-01   5.5
1974-09-01   5.9
1974-10-01   6.0
1974-11-01   6.6
1974-12-01   7.2
1975-01-01   8.1
1975-02-01   8.1
1975-03-01   8.6
1975-04-01   8.8
1975-05-01   9.0
1975-06-01   8.8
1975-07-01   8.6
1975-08-01   8.4
1975-09-01   8.4
1975-10-01   8.4
1975-11-01   8.3
1975-12-01   8.2
1976-01-01   7.9
1976-02-01   7.7
1976-03-01   7.6
1976-04-01   7.7
1976-05-01   7.4
1976-06-01   7.6
1976-07-01   7.8
1976-08-01   7.8
1976-09-01   7.6
1976-10-01   7.7
1976-11-01   7.8
1976-12-01   7.8
1977-01-01   7.5
1977-02-01   7.6
1977-03-01   7.4
1977-04-01   7.2
1977-05-01   7.0
1977-06-01   7.2
1977-07-01   6.9
1977-08-01   7.0
1977-09-01   6.8
1977-10-01   6.8
1977-11-01   6.8
1977-12-01   6.4
1978-01-01   6.4
1978-02-01   6.3
1978-03-01   6.3
1978-04-01   6.1
1978-05-01   6.0
1978-06-01   5.9
1978-07-01   6.2
1978-08-01   5.9
1978-09-01   6.0
1978-10-01   5.8
1978-11-01   5.9
1978-12-01   6.0
1979-01-01   5.9
1979-02-01   5.9
1979-03-01   5.8
1979-04-01   5.8
1979-05-01   5.6
1979-06-01   5.7
1979-07-01   5.7
1979-08-01   6.0
1979-09-01   5.9
1979-10-01   6.0
1979-11-01   5.9
1979-12-01   6.0
1980-01-01   6.3
1980-02-01   6.3
1980-03-01   6.3
1980-04-01   6.9
1980-05-01   7.5
1980-06-01   7.6
1980-07-01   7.8
1980-08-01   7.7
1980-09-01   7.5
1980-10-01   7.5
1980-11-01   7.5
1980-12-01   7.2
1981-01-01   7.5
1981-02-01   7.4
1981-03-01   7.4
1981-04-01   7.2
1981-05-01   7.5
1981-06-01   7.5
1981-07-01   7.2
1981-08-01   7.4
1981-09-01   7.6
1981-10-01   7.9
1981-11-01   8.3
1981-12-01   8.5
1982-01-01   8.6
1982-02-01   8.9
1982-03-01   9.0
1982-04-01   9.3
1982-05-01   9.4
1982-06-01   9.6
1982-07-01   9.8
1982-08-01   9.8
1982-09-01  10.1
1982-10-01  10.4
1982-11-01  10.8
1982-12-01  10.8
1983-01-01  10.4
1983-02-01  10.4
1983-03-01  10.3
1983-04-01  10.2
1983-05-01  10.1
1983-06-01  10.1
1983-07-01   9.4
1983-08-01   9.5
1983-09-01   9.2
1983-10-01   8.8
1983-11-01   8.5
1983-12-01   8.3
1984-01-01   8.0
1984-02-01   7.8
1984-03-01   7.8
1984-04-01   7.7
1984-05-01   7.4
1984-06-01   7.2
1984-07-01   7.5
1984-08-01   7.5
1984-09-01   7.3
1984-10-01   7.4
1984-11-01   7.2
1984-12-01   7.3
1985-01-01   7.3
1985-02-01   7.2
1985-03-01   7.2
1985-04-01   7.3
1985-05-01   7.2
1985-06-01   7.4
1985-07-01   7.4
1985-08-01   7.1
1985-09-01   7.1
1985-10-01   7.1
1985-11-01   7.0
1985-12-01   7.0
1986-01-01   6.7
1986-02-01   7.2
1986-03-01   7.2
1986-04-01   7.1
1986-05-01   7.2
1986-06-01   7.2
1986-07-01   7.0
1986-08-01   6.9
1986-09-01   7.0
1986-10-01   7.0
1986-11-01   6.9
1986-12-01   6.6
1987-01-01   6.6
1987-02-01   6.6
1987-03-01   6.6
1987-04-01   6.3
1987-05-01   6.3
1987-06-01   6.2
1987-07-01   6.1
1987-08-01   6.0
1987-09-01   5.9
1987-10-01   6.0
1987-11-01   5.8
1987-12-01   5.7
1988-01-01   5.7
1988-02-01   5.7
1988-03-01   5.7
1988-04-01   5.4
1988-05-01   5.6
1988-06-01   5.4
1988-07-01   5.4
1988-08-01   5.6
1988-09-01   5.4
1988-10-01   5.4
1988-11-01   5.3
1988-12-01   5.3
1989-01-01   5.4
1989-02-01   5.2
1989-03-01   5.0
1989-04-01   5.2
1989-05-01   5.2
1989-06-01   5.3
1989-07-01   5.2
1989-08-01   5.2
1989-09-01   5.3
1989-10-01   5.3
1989-11-01   5.4
1989-12-01   5.4
1990-01-01   5.4
1990-02-01   5.3
1990-03-01   5.2
1990-04-01   5.4
1990-05-01   5.4
1990-06-01   5.2
1990-07-01   5.5
1990-08-01   5.7
1990-09-01   5.9
1990-10-01   5.9
1990-11-01   6.2
1990-12-01   6.3
1991-01-01   6.4
1991-02-01   6.6
1991-03-01   6.8
1991-04-01   6.7
1991-05-01   6.9
1991-06-01   6.9
1991-07-01   6.8
1991-08-01   6.9
1991-09-01   6.9
1991-10-01   7.0
1991-11-01   7.0
1991-12-01   7.3
1992-01-01   7.3
1992-02-01   7.4
1992-03-01   7.4
1992-04-01   7.4
1992-05-01   7.6
1992-06-01   7.8
1992-07-01   7.7
1992-08-01   7.6
1992-09-01   7.6
1992-10-01   7.3
1992-11-01   7.4
1992-12-01   7.4
1993-01-01   7.3
1993-02-01   7.1
1993-03-01   7.0
1993-04-01   7.1
1993-05-01   7.1
1993-06-01   7.0
1993-07-01   6.9
1993-08-01   6.8
1993-09-01   6.7
1993-10-01   6.8
1993-11-01   6.6
1993-12-01   6.5
1994-01-01   6.6
1994-02-01   6.6
1994-03-01   6.5
1994-04-01   6.4
1994-05-01   6.1
1994-06-01   6.1
1994-07-01   6.1
1994-08-01   6.0
1994-09-01   5.9
1994-10-01   5.8
1994-11-01   5.6
1994-12-01   5.5
1995-01-01   5.6
1995-02-01   5.4
1995-03-01   5.4
1995-04-01   5.8
1995-05-01   5.6
1995-06-01   5.6
1995-07-01   5.7
1995-08-01   5.7
1995-09-01   5.6
1995-10-01   5.5
1995-11-01   5.6
1995-12-01   5.6
1996-01-01   5.6
1996-02-01   5.5
1996-03-01   5.5
1996-04-01   5.6
1996-05-01   5.6
1996-06-01   5.3
1996-07-01   5.5
1996-08-01   5.1
1996-09-01   5.2
1996-10-01   5.2
1996-11-01   5.4
1996-12-01   5.4
1997-01-01   5.3
1997-02-01   5.2
1997-03-01   5.2
1997-04-01   5.1
1997-05-01   4.9
1997-06-01   5.0
1997-07-01   4.9
1997-08-01   4.8
1997-09-01   4.9
1997-10-01   4.7
1997-11-01   4.6
1997-12-01   4.7
1998-01-01   4.6
1998-02-01   4.6
1998-03-01   4.7
1998-04-01   4.3
1998-05-01   4.4
1998-06-01   4.5
1998-07-01   4.5
1998-08-01   4.5
1998-09-01   4.6
1998-10-01   4.5
1998-11-01   4.4
1998-12-01   4.4
1999-01-01   4.3
1999-02-01   4.4
1999-03-01   4.2
1999-04-01   4.3
1999-05-01   4.2
1999-06-01   4.3
1999-07-01   4.3
1999-08-01   4.2
1999-09-01   4.2
1999-10-01   4.1
1999-11-01   4.1
1999-12-01   4.0
2000-01-01   4.0
2000-02-01   4.1
2000-03-01   4.0
2000-04-01   3.8
2000-05-01   4.0
2000-06-01   4.0
2000-07-01   4.0
2000-08-01   4.1
2000-09-01   3.9
2000-10-01   3.9
2000-11-01   3.9
2000-12-01   3.9
2001-01-01   4.2
2001-02-01   4.2
2001-03-01   4.3
2001-04-01   4.4
2001-05-01   4.3
2001-06-01   4.5
2001-07-01   4.6
2001-08-01   4.9
2001-09-01   5.0
2001-10-01   5.3
2001-11-01   5.5
2001-12-01   5.7
2002-01-01   5.7
2002-02-01   5.7
2002-03-01   5.7
2002-04-01   5.9
2002-05-01   5.8
2002-06-01   5.8
2002-07-01   5.8
2002-08-01   5.7
2002-09-01   5.7
2002-10-01   5.7
2002-11-01   5.9
2002-12-01   6.0
2003-01-01   5.8
2003-02-01   5.9
2003-03-01   5.9
2003-04-01   6.0
2003-05-01   6.1
2003-06-01   6.3
2003-07-01   6.2
2003-08-01   6.1
2003-09-01   6.1
2003-10-01   6.0
2003-11-01   5.8
2003-12-01   5.7
2004-01-01   5.7
2004-02-01   5.6
2004-03-01   5.8
2004-04-01   5.6
2004-05-01   5.6
2004-06-01   5.6
2004-07-01   5.5
2004-08-01   5.4
2004-09-01   5.4
2004-10-01   5.5
2004-11-01   5.4
2004-12-01   5.4
2005-01-01   5.2
2005-02-01   5.4
2005-03-01   5.2
2005-04-01   5.2
2005-05-01   5.1
2005-06-01   5.1
2005-07-01   5.0
2005-08-01   4.9
2005-09-01   5.0
2005-10-01   5.0
2005-11-01   5.0
2005-12-01   4.8
2006-01-01   4.7
2006-02-01   4.8
2006-03-01   4.7
2006-04-01   4.7
2006-05-01   4.7
2006-06-01   4.6
2006-07-01   4.7
2006-08-01   4.7
2006-09-01   4.5
2006-10-01   4.4
2006-11-01   4.5
2006-12-01   4.4
2007-01-01   4.6
2007-02-01   4.5
2007-03-01   4.4
2007-04-01   4.5
2007-05-01   4.5
2007-06-01   4.6
2007-07-01   4.7
2007-08-01   4.7
2007-09-01   4.7
2007-10-01   4.8
2007-11-01   4.7
2007-12-01   4.9                                                       2008-01-01   4.9
2008-02-01   4.8
2008-03-01   5.1
2008-04-01   5.0
2008-05-01   5.5
2008-06-01   5.6
2008-07-01   5.8
2008-08-01   6.2
2008-09-01   6.2
2008-10-01   6.6
2008-11-01   6.8
2008-12-01   7.2
2009-01-01   7.6
2009-02-01   8.1
2009-03-01   8.5
2009-04-01   8.9
2009-05-01   9.4
2009-06-01   9.5
2009-07-01   9.4                                               2009-08-01   9.7

============================================

Macroeconomic Forecasts
http://web.rollins.edu/~wseyfried/forecast.htm

Recent Forecasts

CBO (Aug 2009 - see pp4-5): economic growth (end of year comparisons) = -1% in 2009, 2.8% in 2010, 3.8% in 2011; unemployment = 9.3% in 2009 (peak of 10.4% in mid 2010), 10.2% in 2010, 9.1% in 2011, core PCE inflation = 1.7% in 2009, 0.8% in 2010, 0.5% in 2011

Survey of Professional Forecasters (latest survey August 2009): economic growth = 2.4% in third quarter, 2.2% in fourth quarter, 2.3% in 2010; core inflation (PCE) = 1.4% in 2009, 1.3% in 2010 and 1.7% in 2011 (overall PCE inflation = 0.9% in 2009, 1.7% in 2010, 2% in 2011); unemployment rate rises to 9.9% by end of 2009; average unemployment rate = 9.6% in 2010, 8.9% in 2011, 8% in 2012

Wells Fargo Securities Economic Forecast (latest monthly forecast - August 12, 2009): economic growth 3.4% in third quarter of 2009 and +2.6% in the fourth quarter; -2.5% for all of 2009 and 2.1% in 2010; core PCE inflation = 1.5% in 2009 and 1.2% in 2010 (note: CPI inflation = -0.6% in 2009); unemployment rate rising to 10% in 2009 and 10.2% in the first quarter of 2010 before declining to 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010 (slow job creation beginning Spring 2010)

Economic forecasting survey, August 2009 (WSJ): recession ends this quarter, unemployment peaks at 9.9%, 98% favor reappointment of Bernanke as Fed Chair
Economist (July 2009): economic growth = -2.6% in 2009,  1.4% in 2010, 0.8% in 2011, inflation (CPI) = -0.8% in 2009, 0.9% in 2010, 1.3% in 2011

IMF (July 2009): US economic growth = -2.6% in 2009, 0.8% in 2010

Fed Forecast as of June 2009: economic growth = -1.5% to -1% in 2009, 2.1% to 3.3%  in 2010 and 3.8 to 4.6% in 2011 (note: these are from 4th quarter to 4th quarter while other forecasts compare yearly averages); unemployment rate = 9.8 to 10.1 in 2009, 9.5 to 9.8% in 2010 and 8.4 to 8.8% in 2011 (estimates are for 4th quarter of the respective year); inflation as measured by core PCE deflator of 1.3% to 1.6% in 2009, 1% to 1.5% in 2010 and 0.9 to 1.7% in 2011

OECD (June 23, 2009): forecast for US - economic growth = -2.8% for 2009, 0.9% for 2010; unemployment rate = 10% in fourth quarter 2009, 10.1% in 2010, inflation =0.2% in 2009, 0.8% in 2010

Univ. of Michigan Economic Forecast (executive summary - June 2009): economic growth = -3% in second quarter, 0.5% in second half of 2009,  -3.1% for all of 2009, 1.4% in 2010; core inflation (CPI) = 1.8% in 2009 (overall inflation = -0.2%), 2.2% in 2010; unemployment rate averages 9.4% in 2009, 10.3% in 2010 (peaks at 10.4% in second quarter of 2010, declines to 10.2% by end of 2010); total job loss  of 8 million

Livingston Survey (latest survey - June 2009): economic growth = -3.9% for the first half of 2009, 1.1% for the second half of 2009 and 2.6% in first half of 2010; unemployment rate = 9.9% in Dec 2009 and 9.8% in June 2010; inflation (CPI) = -0.7% for 2009 and 1.7% for 2010

NABE consensus forecast (CNN-Money): unemployment reaches 9.8% by end of 2009, 9.3% by end of 2010; economic growth resumes in third quarter (0.7%); economic growth for 2009 = -2.8%