"Run to the sound of the guns, men! Run to the sound of the guns!"

This is not a general calling his troops to engage in battle. They're the words of a client of mine-a brilliant sales executive-readying his sales teams to engage in the battles of an extremely competitive market.

Run to the sound of the guns-engage in the battle. The battle, whether it's meeting the enemy of price discounts, low margins, strong competition, or economic downturns-the battle cannot be fought from the sidelines. Run to where the battle is blazing-engage and fight.

Conventional wisdom has it that the current recession has silenced the guns in the war for talent. In reality, it's actually setting the stage for an epic battle that lies ahead. A perfect storm in the war for talent is mounting over the horizon.

Plain demographics have been fueling the shortage of talent for more than a decade. The convergence of retiring baby-boomers and fewer "Millennials" entering the work force is leaving a growing talent gap. According to the latest US statistics, fewer than 48 million Millennials are poised to replace the 76 million boomers set to retire.

And the problem is global. According to one analysis in the Global Trends 2015 report, "In the advanced economies-and a growing number of emerging market countries-declining birthrates and aging will combine to increase health care and pension costs while reducing the relative size of the working population . leaving shortfalls in the size and capacity of the workforce."

Tools of the Recruiting Trade Have Been on The Rise

Entire departments dedicated to recruitment have become part of the traditional corporate organizational chart. The term "Talent Acquisition" seems to be the popular operative word today, with titles such Vice President Talent Acquisition, Talent Acquisition Specialist, and, of course, the Grand-Daddy of them all-Chief Talent Acquisition Officer.

New markets have also been rapidly emerging, offering services such as "Talent Sourcing", "Talent Attraction", "Talent Selection", and "Talent Retention". At last count, there are over 50,000 "Talent Section" companies in existence-and the numbers are growing.

Web tools for connecting and sourcing "passive" candidates such as ZoomInfo, Jigsaw, and LinkedIn have grown exponentially, and companies have been bloating budgets getting corporate recruiters up-to-speed with the latest advances in sourcing techniques offered by groups such as AIRS and the Adler Group.

And the growth of the executive search business has also been skyrocketing-despite the rapid investment of in-house recruiting tools and abilities. According to Kennedy Information, the global market for executive search services his approaching $8 billion-and that growth since 1990 has been "staggering". Revenues for top-dog executive search firms such as Korn/Ferry and Heidrick & Struggles has increased just under 50% from 2006.

Do You Feel It In The Air? Storm Clouds On The Horizon: The Perfect Storm in the War For Talent

On February 6th, 2009, the AP went to press with the staggering headline: "Employers ax payrolls by most since `74; jobless rate at 7.6 percent".

And yet the markets rallied, finishing up over 200 points that day. Many economists argued the Street viewed unemployment as lagging indicator of an economic recovery. The huge spike in unemployment numbers was a sign to the Street that the economy may finally be bottoming out.

On March 6, the numbers came out at 8.2%. The Dow ended in an up day. The optimist would say the Dow didn't tank, and the last time the unemployment numbers hit this high was late 1983-just before the launch of the 20 + Reagan boom years. The pessimist would say that the recession is deepening.

Either way, I believe these last two jumps were the most painful for companies. The early numbers in a recession generally reflect the shedding of the weak. Companies trim their payrolls of C and D players. However, the deeper the recession-the deeper the cuts. It stings when you start letting go your stars.

With A and B players flooding the streets, conventional wisdom has it that talent is plentiful, thus easing the battle lines in the war for talent. But to the contrary, deep recessions are not easing to the war for talent-they are exacerbating to it.

The Perfect Storm in the War For Talent

A stir up in an industry creates havoc in the talent pool. Furloughed A and B players will either get snapped up quickly within your industry, or they will leave your industry all together and start a new career or venture in another market.

Our internal studies have shown that by the time the market turns north again, the talent pool will have shrunk by at least 30%. And if the recession deepens-this number will get worse. The 30% who will no longer be available will scatter in a variety of directions, with roughly 15% getting snapped up by your competitors or competing technologies, some 10% finding a place for their skills in an entirely new market, 3% opting to retire, and the remaining starting ventures of their own-possibly something in direct competition to you (see chart: http://tinyurl.com/dfanes).

To address this, companies stay connected to key players for easy re-recruiting. Investment in Boomerang, or Alumni programs which allow companies to set up a mutually beneficial relationship with former employees-especially A and B players-has been on the rise.

Preparing for the Storm-What Smart Companies are Doing About It

Former GE CEO Jack Welch was recently asked by Miami Herald for his top recommendations for companies to successfully navigate through this economy. Jack said, "Think about buying or burying your competition. Buy your nearest competition, steal the best employees from your competitor, because they're probably not taking care of them."

In short, Jack's advice is run to the sound of the guns. Be bold and recruit in a down market. Keeping 'in touch' with alumni is not good enough. With the talent pool rapidly shrinking, you need to be revamping your recruiting processes with proactive strategies to attract new talent to your marketplace.

I help my clients establish streamlined, centralized recruiting strategies globally. My proposals project an average savings of over $200k a year in recruiting fees. The turn-key program leaves my clients with the infrastructure and blue print for a structured, proactive recruiting process that keeps them competitive and an ability to bring in cutting-edge talent with consistency.

Have you run to the sounds of the blazing battle? The war will be long and fierce-don't fight it alone. Please feel free to call me or drop me a note anytime and let me know how I can help you prepare for the rapidly-approaching perfect storm in the war for talent. I can be reached direct any time at +1-623-572-8989, and I invite you to visit my website at www.cuberaider.com.